Probability: check equally likely outcomes first
When outcomes are equally likely, divide favourable outcomes by all possible outcomes.
| Outcomes | Count |
|---|---|
| All: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 | 6 |
| Even: 2, 4, 6 | 3 |
One worked example
- P = 3/6Three of the six equally likely outcomes are even.
- P = 1/2Simplify the fraction.
Watch out: Equal likelihood is a condition, not a property of every random process. A probability of 1/3 does not guarantee success on every third attempt.
Goal, prerequisites and card origin
What you will learn: Find probability in a simple finite model.
What you need first: Counting outcomes and understanding fractions.
An original PEAZIT working card. Independent expert review and effectiveness testing have not yet taken place. · v1
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When outcomes are equally likely, divide favourable outcomes by all possible outcomes.