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Probability: check equally likely outcomes first

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When outcomes are equally likely, divide favourable outcomes by all possible outcomes.

A fair six-sided die: even numbers.
OutcomesCount
All: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 66
Even: 2, 4, 63

One worked example

  1. P = 3/6Three of the six equally likely outcomes are even.
  2. P = 1/2Simplify the fraction.

Watch out: Equal likelihood is a condition, not a property of every random process. A probability of 1/3 does not guarantee success on every third attempt.

Goal, prerequisites and card origin

What you will learn: Find probability in a simple finite model.

What you need first: Counting outcomes and understanding fractions.

An original PEAZIT working card. Independent expert review and effectiveness testing have not yet taken place. · v1

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When outcomes are equally likely, divide favourable outcomes by all possible outcomes.

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